There’s not much anyone can do now, aside from show up tomorrow morning and walk across the Bob. Fretting about conditions only does so much good.

A warm and sunny Tuesday sent melt across Montana into a temporary frenzy that is only just subsiding.  It looks like rivers will be down to a manageable, but still big, level this weekend.  The probability of problematic creek crossings is considerable, to an extent we haven’t seen the past two years.

The weather forecast itself looks decent, with warmish temps and modest probabilities of rain all weekend.  Most likely that will mean episodic, 2-3 hour showers, but it only takes one of those right at dark to make your world very cold indeed.  The more worrying thing is the cloudy and warm nights.  Badger Pass Snotel, elevation 6900 feet, has barely dropped below freezing the past week, and has bad a few rainy nights well above freezing.  The probability of rotten, semi-isothermal snow (especially below 6500 feet) is high.  If the southern Swan crest doesn’t freeze hard the next few nights the final stretch of most routes could be absolute misery.

I am not doing the Open this year, a choice made weeks ago that has been born out by an exhausting and all-consuming first week at my new job.  Stress in life is additive across spheres, and with this new gig being the most significant I’ve had by a considerable margin, I knew I wouldn’t have enough care left to hike across the Bob in three days.  I learned five years ago that having ones head in the right place is more important than anything else.  Instead, I’ll be a happy spectator.

Have a good weekend.